The economic strength and quality of life of Sydney mean more people are attracted to live in this city. While two-thirds of the net population growth derives from natural increase (more births than deaths), the city is also a magnet for migrants from elsewhere in Australia and overseas seeking economic and life opportunities.
Population growth in Sydney has been a big feature of its success. The city is now the most culturally diverse in the southern hemisphere. This increasing human resource diversity has deepened the range of skills and experiences on offer in the city and has added to its character and identity.
Population GrowthThe Sydney region contains around 4.2 million people, which is almost 80 per cent of the population of the Greater Metropolitan Region which includes the Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Illawarra regions. Population forecasts suggest Sydney's population is expected to reach five million people by the 2020s and may reach six million by mid-century.
Data for the past 25 years shows that Sydney's population growth ranged from a low of 400 people per week in 1990 to a high of 1,150 people per week in 1996. In the last decade, growth in Sydney has twice topped 50,000 per year. On average Sydney grows by about 780 per week or around 40,000 per year.
Sydney needs to plan for a high growth scenario. The Metropolitan Strategy assumes average growth to 2031 will be 10 to 15 per cent higher than the recent average. Consequently, population growth of 1.2 million people or a total of 5.3 million by 2031 is assumed, but this will be reviewed.
Decentralisation e! ncouraging the population to grow in regional cities and other areas of the State - has been raised as an option for reducing Sydney's growth pressures. Regional and rural NSW have experienced substantial changes in their population over recent years and further changes are anticipated. Regional centres are growing while many smaller towns are experiencing population losses.
To reduce population growth in Sydney, the attraction of alternative places would need to increase and/or that of Sydney would need to decrease. Sydney is a global city. Restrictions on the growth of Sydney are more likely to result in businesses moving interstate or overseas than to regional areas. Currently, regional areas outside the Greater Metropolitan Region lack the employment base or infrastructure investment to sustain or attract large increases in population.
Significant levels of diversion to regional areas may come at a large cost in terms of infrastructure provision in a dispersed rather than a concentrated metropolitan setting. A 50 per cent increase over the next 25 years in the population of the 19 largest regional centres in inland and coastal NSW would only put back Sydney's growth by six years. The Government does not envisage a significant share of Sydney's population growth being diverted to regional and rural NSW.
Household Growth and Change
Population growth is also accompanied by changes in the age structure of the population, the average number of people in each household and household composition.
Homes with single and two person households are now the majority of all homes and the trend towards proportionately more of these smaller households is likely to continue.
Currently, 22 per cent of all households in Sydney are occupied by one person. By 2031, there are likely to be an additional 300,000 single person households in Sydney-representing 30 per cent of all households.
Households containing couples with children are expected to remain the largest group, by a small margin, accounting for 32 per cent of all households. By 2031, Sydney is predicted to have almost 140,000 additional households containing couples with children.
The trend to smaller households is partly driven by the ageing of the population, which tends to result in more single and two person households. This will inevitably lead to a greater demand for smaller housing with good access to shops, transport and services such as health.
Increasing affluence, and more single and young people living alone, are also major contributors to the increased demand for housing. These changes in household type and therefore occupancy rates mean that total demand for housing will be greater than population growth and a wider mix of housing types will be required.
With population growing to 5.3 million and average household sizes anticipated to fall from 2.65 to 2.36 persons per private dwelling by 2031, a total of 2.2 million homes will be required in Sydney.
The current number of homes is estimated at approximately 1.6 million but a proportion of the total is always vacant or otherwise not available.
Making an allowance for this, and for residents of non-private dwellings (e.g. nursing and boarding homes), means the Government is planning is for an additional 640, 000 new homes to house a population that is growing and whose household dynamics are changing.
The Plan for Managing Sydney's Growth Centres coupled with the land release program provides for approximately 220,000 homes on the fringe areas of Sydney. Approximately 420,000 new homes will therefore need to be constructed in existing suburbs.
These assumptions and projections will be regularly reviewed. While existing development approvals and policy settings will determine development patterns for the next five or so years, if trends shift there is scope to review the Strategy and make adjustments. Further flexibility will be provided by the Strategy, ensuring there is always more than enough land zoned for development at any particular time.
